The CRFB laid out all of its disaster scenarios, ranging from the popping of an asset bubble in real estate, equities, AI, or digital assets to other black swan events such as a natural disaster, war, or collapse of a major industry. The report was drafted on embargo before the U.S. and Israel hit Iran with air strikes, freezing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. The CRFB also flagged fiscal or monetary policy errors as a major risk, especially in trying to manage a “stagflation scenario.” This is a distinct possibility, the longer the Iran War drags on.
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